01 文章选材
November 6TH-12TH｜Finance & economics
【Para. 1】加密货币股价暴跌，全球最大比特币持有企业 Strategy 成为狂妄案例
【Para. 2】该公司借款 / 上市筹资买币，一年多股价涨幅近 600%
【Para. 3】近期因比特币价格下跌 25%，该公司市值暴跌超 40%，每年债务 8 亿美金
【Para. 4】短期债务尚能履行，但明年或有更多障碍
【Para. 5】而若比特币价格无法恢复，2027 年公司或将陷入抛售比特币的困境
【Para. 6】而抛售将对比特币市场造成冲击
【Para. 7】无论结果如何，Strategy 都将载入金融史册
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Bitcoin has plunged. Strategy Inc is an early victim
【Para.1】Strategy, once a middling software firm named MicroStrategy, is now best known as the world’s largest corporate owner of bitcoin. Michael Saylor, its founder, describes the company as the world’s first digital-credit vehicle, powered by what he calls “a bitcoin reactor”. Now, with the price of the cryptocurrency plummeting, it is something else altogether: an example of hubris, demonstrating the risks of taking on leverage to purchase enormous quantities of a volatile asset.
【Para.2】The firm began borrowing to buy bitcoin in 2020, and ramped up purchases last year. Now it does little else and owns 650,000 bitcoin, or 3% of the total stock. To fund its buying spree, Strategy has issued equity, convertible bonds and preferred stock with meaty dividends. Until recently, the approach seemed to be paying off. From the start of last year to July, the firm’s share price rose by almost 600%, against a rise of under 200% for bitcoin itself. What could possibly go wrong?
【Para.3】Quite a lot, it turns out. The firm is floundering. Since Strategy has gone all-in on bitcoin, it has few other sources of revenue, and it owes $800m a year in dividends and debt-interest payments. The price of bitcoin has fallen by a quarter since early October. Over the same period, Strategy’s share price has dropped by over 40%. Its market capitalisation of $54bn is now below the value of its holdings. That raises the risk of further miserable losses for owners of its equity, a forced sale that weakens bitcoin further—or both.
【Para.4】Strategy can meet its immediate obligations. On December 1st it announced it would use $1.4bn raised via equity issuance—equal to 21 months of dividend payments—as a reserve to weather the downturn. But bigger obstacles are coming. In January the firm may be cut from indices issued by MSCI, a data firm, which would reduce investment from passive funds.
【Para.5】 Without a proper recovery in the price of bitcoin, the real pain will begin in 2027, when the firm’s convertible debt starts to mature. Its borrowing is modest relative to its assets; all the same, its lack of alternative sources of income may force it to flog its bitcoin. Indeed, on December 1st Mr Saylor reversed a long-held promise never to sell the company’s holdings.
【Para.6】If it were to sell a sizeable chunk, that would be bad news for the bitcoin market. According to Kaiko, a research firm, there is now less than $600m in buy and sell orders on all exchanges. Large sales can therefore swamp liquidity, driving down prices. A liquidation of $19bn in leveraged holdings on October 10th offers a hint of the potential damage; it prompted bitcoin’s price to fall by 12%.
【Para.7】Strategy’s initial success—and possible future success, if prices recover—will go down in financial history. Often the details that make buzzy, speculative products dangerous are hidden from the investing public as their value surges, only to become apparent in the dismal aftermath of a crash. This time, the fragile model has been plain for all the world to see. If Strategy’s troubles deepen, investors will have nobody to blame but themselves.
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